Should we sign this publishing deal?

A stress-test of the "honeymoon phase" to see where the downside sits once the contract is signed and your flexibility disappears.

Executive Summary:

Publishing agreements are often negotiated when projects most need certainty. Capital and distribution appear within reach.
The upside narrative is usually persuasive. Forecasts and market potential dominate negotiations.
Signing the contract fixes the incentive structure. Recoup mechanics and decision rights become difficult to change.
Development realities rarely follow a fixed path. Schedules move and markets evolve.
The real question is where the downside sits. How do the mechanics behave if performance weakens?
Before signature, understand how incentives will behave over time.

When incentives become fixed

Publishing agreements are usually negotiated at the moment a project most needs certainty. Development has progressed far enough that the opportunity feels real, but not far enough that the studio can carry the risk alone. The deal offers capital, distribution and the promise of reaching a much larger audience.

At this stage the upside can appear persuasive. Forecasts are encouraging, the recoup structure appears defensible and both sides see a path to success.

Inside the studio the agreement often feels like the final step before launch.

But signing a publishing deal does something important to the project. It fixes the incentive structure around how the title will be financed, marketed and ultimately monetised.

Before signature, both sides retain flexibility. Terms are negotiable. Expectations can still adjust as the project evolves. After the contract is executed, those mechanics are largely locked in place.

This matters because development rarely follows a predictable path. Schedules move. Market conditions shift. Player behaviour changes. Yet the commercial structure governing the project does not evolve alongside those realities. The recoup mechanics, revenue splits and decision rights remain largely fixed. Over time, this can create a divergence between what is optimal for the project and what the contract requires.

The key question is rarely whether the deal appears reasonable today. It is where the downside will sit if the project develops differently than expected.

Leadership teams often need to understand:

How recoup mechanics behave under weaker performance
Where decision rights sit once the project approaches launch
Whether incentives between studio and publisher remain aligned across different outcomes

These dynamics can be difficult to assess while negotiations are still focused on the optimistic case. Before signature, some teams pause to examine where the downside actually sits.

An Independent Assessment will examine how the commercial mechanics behave under different scenarios, whether the incentives remain aligned over time and where the studio’s leverage will realistically sit once the agreement is signed.

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Engagement scope:

Assessments are typically delivered as focused engagements scoped around the number of titles, depth of analysis and decision context.

Most are completed within a defined timebox and an upfront agreed budget. Prices for Independent Assessments typically start from £18,000, depending on scope and decision complexity. Final scope and budget agreed following an initial discussion.

This work is not intended to validate existing decisions, nor is it structured as an open-ended advisory retainer without a defined decision point.